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ResInsight/ApplicationLibCode/ReservoirDataModel/RigDeclineCurveCalculator.cpp
Magne Sjaastad c6927648e8 #11172: Add auto Arps decline curve type
Add auto Arps decline curve fitting, document the algorithm and reference the AutoDCA repository.
2026-10-13 12:44:00 +02:00

619 lines
28 KiB
C++

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//
// Copyright (C) 2023- Equinor ASA
//
// ResInsight is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
// it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
// the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
// (at your option) any later version.
//
// ResInsight is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY
// WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or
// FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
//
// See the GNU General Public License at <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl.html>
// for more details.
//
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
#include "RigDeclineCurveCalculator.h"
#include <QDateTime>
#include <QStringList>
#include <algorithm>
#include <array>
#include <cmath>
#include <limits>
#include <tuple>
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeDeclineRate( double time0, double value0, double time1, double value1 )
{
return ( 1.0 / ( time1 - time0 ) ) * std::log( value0 / value1 );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeFlowRateExponentialDecline( double initialProductionRateQi,
double initialDeclineRateDi,
double timeSinceStart )
{
return initialProductionRateQi * std::exp( -initialDeclineRateDi * timeSinceStart );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeFlowRateHarmonicDecline( double initialProductionRateQi, double initialDeclineRateDi, double timeSinceStart )
{
return initialProductionRateQi / ( 1.0 + initialDeclineRateDi * timeSinceStart );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeFlowRateHyperbolicDecline( double initialProductionRateQi,
double initialDeclineRateDi,
double timeSinceStart,
double hyperbolicDeclineConstantB )
{
return initialProductionRateQi /
std::pow( 1.0 + hyperbolicDeclineConstantB * initialDeclineRateDi * timeSinceStart, 1.0 / hyperbolicDeclineConstantB );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeCumulativeProductionExponentialDecline( double initialProductionRateQi,
double initialDeclineRateDi,
double timeSinceStart )
{
double productionRate = computeFlowRateExponentialDecline( initialProductionRateQi, initialDeclineRateDi, timeSinceStart );
return ( 1 / initialDeclineRateDi ) * ( initialProductionRateQi - productionRate );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeCumulativeProductionHarmonicDecline( double initialProductionRateQi,
double initialDeclineRateDi,
double timeSinceStart )
{
double productionRate = computeFlowRateHarmonicDecline( initialProductionRateQi, initialDeclineRateDi, timeSinceStart );
return ( initialProductionRateQi / initialDeclineRateDi ) * std::log( initialProductionRateQi / productionRate );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeCumulativeProductionHyperbolicDecline( double initialProductionRateQi,
double initialDeclineRateDi,
double timeSinceStart,
double hyperbolicDeclineConstantB )
{
double productionRate =
computeFlowRateHyperbolicDecline( initialProductionRateQi, initialDeclineRateDi, timeSinceStart, hyperbolicDeclineConstantB );
return ( std::pow( initialProductionRateQi, hyperbolicDeclineConstantB ) / ( ( 1.0 - hyperbolicDeclineConstantB ) * initialDeclineRateDi ) ) *
( std::pow( initialProductionRateQi, 1.0 - hyperbolicDeclineConstantB ) -
std::pow( productionRate, 1.0 - hyperbolicDeclineConstantB ) );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
std::optional<std::pair<double, double>> RigDeclineCurveCalculator::fitLine( const std::vector<double>& t, const std::vector<double>& y )
{
if ( t.size() != y.size() || t.size() < 2 ) return std::nullopt;
// Scale time to avoid numerical problems when time is given in seconds
const double timeScale = 365.25 * 24.0 * 3600.0;
const double n = static_cast<double>( t.size() );
double sumT = 0.0, sumY = 0.0, sumTT = 0.0, sumTY = 0.0;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < t.size(); i++ )
{
const double ts = t[i] / timeScale;
sumT += ts;
sumY += y[i];
sumTT += ts * ts;
sumTY += ts * y[i];
}
const double denominator = n * sumTT - sumT * sumT;
if ( std::abs( denominator ) < 1.0e-12 ) return std::nullopt;
const double slopePerYear = ( n * sumTY - sumT * sumY ) / denominator;
const double intercept = ( sumY - slopePerYear * sumT ) / n;
if ( !std::isfinite( slopePerYear ) || !std::isfinite( intercept ) ) return std::nullopt;
return std::make_pair( intercept, slopePerYear / timeScale );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RigDeclineCurveCalculator::FitResult RigDeclineCurveCalculator::fitExponentialDecline( const std::vector<double>& times,
const std::vector<double>& flowRates )
{
// ln(q) = ln(qi) - Di * t
std::vector<double> t, y;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < std::min( times.size(), flowRates.size() ); i++ )
{
if ( flowRates[i] > 0.0 )
{
t.push_back( times[i] );
y.push_back( std::log( flowRates[i] ) );
}
}
auto line = fitLine( t, y );
if ( !line ) return std::nullopt;
return std::make_pair( std::exp( line->first ), -line->second );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RigDeclineCurveCalculator::FitResult RigDeclineCurveCalculator::fitHarmonicDecline( const std::vector<double>& times,
const std::vector<double>& flowRates )
{
// 1/q = 1/qi + (Di/qi) * t
std::vector<double> t, y;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < std::min( times.size(), flowRates.size() ); i++ )
{
if ( flowRates[i] > 0.0 )
{
t.push_back( times[i] );
y.push_back( 1.0 / flowRates[i] );
}
}
auto line = fitLine( t, y );
if ( !line || line->first <= 0.0 ) return std::nullopt;
const double qi = 1.0 / line->first;
return std::make_pair( qi, line->second * qi );
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RigDeclineCurveCalculator::FitResult RigDeclineCurveCalculator::fitHyperbolicDecline( const std::vector<double>& times,
const std::vector<double>& flowRates,
double hyperbolicDeclineConstantB )
{
if ( hyperbolicDeclineConstantB <= 0.0 ) return std::nullopt;
// q^-b = qi^-b * (1 + b * Di * t)
std::vector<double> t, y;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < std::min( times.size(), flowRates.size() ); i++ )
{
if ( flowRates[i] > 0.0 )
{
t.push_back( times[i] );
y.push_back( std::pow( flowRates[i], -hyperbolicDeclineConstantB ) );
}
}
auto line = fitLine( t, y );
if ( !line || line->first <= 0.0 ) return std::nullopt;
const double qi = std::pow( line->first, -1.0 / hyperbolicDeclineConstantB );
const double di = line->second / ( line->first * hyperbolicDeclineConstantB );
return std::make_pair( qi, di );
}
namespace
{
double autoArpsLoss( double b, double lnQi, double diPerYear, const std::vector<double>& tYears, const std::vector<double>& rates )
{
const double qi = std::exp( lnQi );
double loss = 0.0;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < tYears.size(); i++ )
{
double q = 0.0;
if ( b < 1.0e-3 )
{
q = qi * std::exp( -diPerYear * tYears[i] );
}
else
{
const double base = 1.0 + b * diPerYear * tYears[i];
if ( base <= 0.0 ) return std::numeric_limits<double>::max();
q = qi / std::pow( base, 1.0 / b );
}
const double rel = ( q - rates[i] ) / rates[i];
loss += rel * rel;
}
return std::isfinite( loss ) ? loss : std::numeric_limits<double>::max();
}
// Nelder-Mead minimization of the loss in (ln qi, Di) for a fixed b
std::pair<double, std::array<double, 2>>
minimizeAutoArps( double b, std::array<double, 2> start, const std::vector<double>& tYears, const std::vector<double>& rates )
{
using Point = std::array<double, 2>;
auto f = [&]( const Point& p ) { return autoArpsLoss( b, p[0], p[1], tYears, rates ); };
std::array<Point, 3> s = { start,
Point{ start[0] + 0.1, start[1] },
Point{ start[0], start[1] + 0.1 * std::max( 1.0, std::abs( start[1] ) ) } };
std::array<double, 3> v = { f( s[0] ), f( s[1] ), f( s[2] ) };
for ( int iter = 0; iter < 500; iter++ )
{
std::array<int, 3> idx = { 0, 1, 2 };
std::sort( idx.begin(), idx.end(), [&]( int a, int c ) { return v[a] < v[c]; } );
const Point best = s[idx[0]], mid = s[idx[1]], worst = s[idx[2]];
const double vb = v[idx[0]], vm = v[idx[1]], vw = v[idx[2]];
s = { best, mid, worst };
v = { vb, vm, vw };
if ( std::abs( vw - vb ) < 1.0e-18 ) break;
const Point centroid = { 0.5 * ( best[0] + mid[0] ), 0.5 * ( best[1] + mid[1] ) };
auto along = [&]( double k )
{ return Point{ centroid[0] + k * ( worst[0] - centroid[0] ), centroid[1] + k * ( worst[1] - centroid[1] ) }; };
const Point refl = along( -1.0 );
const double vRefl = f( refl );
if ( vRefl < vb )
{
const Point exp = along( -2.0 );
const double vExp = f( exp );
if ( vExp < vRefl )
{
s[2] = exp;
v[2] = vExp;
}
else
{
s[2] = refl;
v[2] = vRefl;
}
}
else if ( vRefl < vm )
{
s[2] = refl;
v[2] = vRefl;
}
else
{
const Point contr = along( vRefl < vw ? -0.5 : 0.5 );
const double vContr = f( contr );
if ( vContr < std::min( vw, vRefl ) )
{
s[2] = contr;
v[2] = vContr;
}
else
{
for ( int k = 1; k < 3; k++ )
{
s[k] = { best[0] + 0.5 * ( s[k][0] - best[0] ), best[1] + 0.5 * ( s[k][1] - best[1] ) };
v[k] = f( s[k] );
}
}
}
}
const int bestIdx = static_cast<int>( std::min_element( v.begin(), v.end() ) - v.begin() );
return { v[bestIdx], s[bestIdx] };
}
} // namespace
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
std::optional<RigDeclineCurveCalculator::ArpsFit> RigDeclineCurveCalculator::fitAutoArps( const std::vector<double>& times,
const std::vector<double>& flowRates )
{
// Only use positive rates, starting at the peak rate to skip the ramp-up phase
std::vector<double> t, q;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < std::min( times.size(), flowRates.size() ); i++ )
{
if ( flowRates[i] > 0.0 && std::isfinite( flowRates[i] ) )
{
t.push_back( times[i] / secondsPerYear );
q.push_back( flowRates[i] );
}
}
if ( q.empty() ) return std::nullopt;
const size_t peak = static_cast<size_t>( std::max_element( q.begin(), q.end() ) - q.begin() );
t.erase( t.begin(), t.begin() + peak );
q.erase( q.begin(), q.begin() + peak );
if ( q.size() < 3 ) return std::nullopt;
// Start from the exponential fit
std::array<double, 2> start = { std::log( q.back() ), 0.0 };
{
std::vector<double> lnq;
for ( double v : q )
lnq.push_back( std::log( v ) );
std::vector<double> tSecondsStart;
for ( double v : t )
tSecondsStart.push_back( v * secondsPerYear );
auto line = fitLine( tSecondsStart, lnq );
if ( !line ) return std::nullopt;
start = { line->first, -line->second * secondsPerYear };
if ( !std::isfinite( start[0] ) || !std::isfinite( start[1] ) ) return std::nullopt;
}
double bestLoss = std::numeric_limits<double>::max();
double bestB = 0.0;
std::array<double, 2> bestPoint = start;
std::vector<double> tSeconds;
for ( double v : t )
tSeconds.push_back( v * secondsPerYear );
auto evaluate = [&]( double b )
{
// Use the linearized fit for this b as starting point when available
std::array<double, 2> bStart = start;
if ( b >= 1.0e-3 )
{
auto linear = fitHyperbolicDecline( tSeconds, q, b );
if ( linear && linear->first > 0.0 && std::isfinite( linear->second ) )
bStart = { std::log( linear->first ), linear->second * secondsPerYear };
}
// Restart from the previous result to escape a collapsed simplex
auto [loss, point] = minimizeAutoArps( b, bStart, t, q );
for ( int restart = 0; restart < 3; restart++ )
std::tie( loss, point ) = minimizeAutoArps( b, point, t, q );
if ( loss < bestLoss )
{
bestLoss = loss;
bestB = b;
bestPoint = point;
}
};
for ( int i = 0; i <= 20; i++ )
evaluate( 0.05 * i );
// Refine around the best grid value
const double coarseB = bestB;
for ( int i = -4; i <= 4; i++ )
{
const double b = coarseB + 0.01 * i;
if ( b >= 0.0 && b <= 1.0 ) evaluate( b );
}
if ( bestLoss == std::numeric_limits<double>::max() ) return std::nullopt;
const double qi = std::exp( bestPoint[0] );
const double di = bestPoint[1] / secondsPerYear;
if ( !std::isfinite( qi ) || !std::isfinite( di ) || di < 0.0 ) return std::nullopt;
return ArpsFit{ qi, di, bestB };
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
std::pair<double, double> RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeStartEndPointParameters( const std::vector<double>& values,
const std::vector<time_t>& timeSteps,
bool isAccumulated )
{
auto computeProductionRate = []( double t0, double v0, double t1, double v1 ) { return ( v1 - v0 ) / ( t1 - t0 ); };
const double endTime = static_cast<double>( timeSteps.back() );
if ( !isAccumulated )
{
// Use the first (time step, value) pair as t0. The last point (within the selected range) is the initial production rate.
const double initialProductionRate = values.back();
const double initialDeclineRate =
computeDeclineRate( static_cast<double>( timeSteps.front() ), values.front(), endTime, initialProductionRate );
return { initialProductionRate, initialDeclineRate };
}
// Select a point (t0) 1/4 into the user-specified range
const double historyStep = 0.25;
const size_t idx0 = static_cast<size_t>( timeSteps.size() * historyStep );
const double t0 = static_cast<double>( timeSteps[idx0] );
const double v0 = values[idx0];
// For accumulated result: compute the initial production rate from the two points.
const double initialProductionRate = computeProductionRate( t0, v0, endTime, values.back() );
// Compute the production rate at time t0 by using the first point in the existing curve.
const double productionRate0 = computeProductionRate( static_cast<double>( timeSteps.front() ), values.front(), t0, v0 );
const double initialDeclineRate = computeDeclineRate( t0, productionRate0, endTime, initialProductionRate );
return { initialProductionRate, initialDeclineRate };
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
std::optional<RigDeclineCurveCalculator::DeclineParameters>
RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeDeclineParameters( const DeclineModel& model,
const std::vector<double>& values,
const std::vector<time_t>& timeSteps )
{
if ( values.empty() || values.size() != timeSteps.size() ) return std::nullopt;
const time_t referenceTime = timeSteps.back();
double initialProductionRate = 0.0;
double initialDeclineRate = 0.0;
double hyperbolicConstantB = model.hyperbolicDeclineConstantB;
if ( model.fitMethod == FitMethod::START_END_POINT && model.type != DeclineCurveType::AUTO_ARPS )
{
std::tie( initialProductionRate, initialDeclineRate ) = computeStartEndPointParameters( values, timeSteps, model.isAccumulated );
}
else
{
// Regression is performed on flow rates. Derive rates from the differences if the curve is accumulated.
std::vector<double> times;
std::vector<double> rates;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < values.size(); i++ )
{
if ( model.isAccumulated )
{
if ( i == 0 || timeSteps[i] <= timeSteps[i - 1] ) continue;
rates.push_back( ( values[i] - values[i - 1] ) / static_cast<double>( timeSteps[i] - timeSteps[i - 1] ) );
// The average rate over the interval is best represented at the interval midpoint
times.push_back( 0.5 * static_cast<double>( timeSteps[i - 1] - referenceTime ) +
0.5 * static_cast<double>( timeSteps[i] - referenceTime ) );
}
else
{
rates.push_back( values[i] );
times.push_back( static_cast<double>( timeSteps[i] - referenceTime ) );
}
}
FitResult fit;
if ( model.type == DeclineCurveType::AUTO_ARPS )
{
auto arps = fitAutoArps( times, rates );
if ( !arps ) return std::nullopt;
fit = std::make_pair( arps->initialProductionRate, arps->initialDeclineRate );
hyperbolicConstantB = arps->hyperbolicDeclineConstantB;
}
else if ( model.type == DeclineCurveType::EXPONENTIAL )
{
fit = fitExponentialDecline( times, rates );
}
else if ( model.type == DeclineCurveType::HARMONIC )
{
fit = fitHarmonicDecline( times, rates );
}
else
{
fit = fitHyperbolicDecline( times, rates, model.hyperbolicDeclineConstantB );
}
if ( !fit ) return std::nullopt;
std::tie( initialProductionRate, initialDeclineRate ) = *fit;
}
if ( !std::isfinite( initialProductionRate ) || !std::isfinite( initialDeclineRate ) ) return std::nullopt;
return DeclineParameters{ initialProductionRate, initialDeclineRate, referenceTime, hyperbolicConstantB };
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
double RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computePredictedValue( const DeclineModel& model, const DeclineParameters& parameters, double timeSinceStart )
{
const double qi = parameters.initialProductionRate;
const double di = parameters.initialDeclineRate;
const double b = parameters.hyperbolicDeclineConstantB;
switch ( model.type )
{
case DeclineCurveType::EXPONENTIAL:
return model.isAccumulated ? computeCumulativeProductionExponentialDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart )
: computeFlowRateExponentialDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart );
case DeclineCurveType::HARMONIC:
return model.isAccumulated ? computeCumulativeProductionHarmonicDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart )
: computeFlowRateHarmonicDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart );
case DeclineCurveType::AUTO_ARPS:
if ( b < 1.0e-3 )
return model.isAccumulated ? computeCumulativeProductionExponentialDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart )
: computeFlowRateExponentialDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart );
if ( std::abs( b - 1.0 ) < 1.0e-3 )
return model.isAccumulated ? computeCumulativeProductionHarmonicDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart )
: computeFlowRateHarmonicDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart );
[[fallthrough]];
case DeclineCurveType::HYPERBOLIC:
return model.isAccumulated ? computeCumulativeProductionHyperbolicDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart, b )
: computeFlowRateHyperbolicDecline( qi, di, timeSinceStart, b );
}
return 0.0;
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
std::optional<std::vector<double>> RigDeclineCurveCalculator::computeDeclineCurveValues( const DeclineModel& model,
const std::vector<double>& values,
const std::vector<time_t>& timeSteps,
const std::vector<time_t>& futureTimeSteps )
{
auto parameters = computeDeclineParameters( model, values, timeSteps );
if ( !parameters ) return std::nullopt;
auto computeValue = [&]( time_t time )
{
double timeSinceStart = static_cast<double>( time - parameters->referenceTime );
double predictedValue = computePredictedValue( model, *parameters, timeSinceStart );
if ( model.isAccumulated ) predictedValue += values.back();
return predictedValue;
};
// The history part is a backward extrapolation of the decline curve. Keep the original value if the equation is not valid in the
// history time range.
std::vector<double> outValues;
for ( size_t i = 0; i < values.size(); i++ )
{
double value = computeValue( timeSteps[i] );
outValues.push_back( std::isfinite( value ) ? value : values[i] );
}
for ( time_t futureTime : futureTimeSteps )
{
outValues.push_back( computeValue( futureTime ) );
}
return outValues;
}
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
///
//--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QString RigDeclineCurveCalculator::equationText( const DeclineModel& model, const DeclineParameters& parameters )
{
QString rateEquation;
QString cumulativeEquation;
switch ( model.type )
{
case DeclineCurveType::EXPONENTIAL:
rateEquation = "q(t) = qi * exp(-Di * t)";
cumulativeEquation = "Np(t) = Np0 + (qi - q(t)) / Di";
break;
case DeclineCurveType::HARMONIC:
rateEquation = "q(t) = qi / (1 + Di * t)";
cumulativeEquation = "Np(t) = Np0 + (qi / Di) * ln(qi / q(t))";
break;
case DeclineCurveType::AUTO_ARPS:
case DeclineCurveType::HYPERBOLIC:
rateEquation = "q(t) = qi / (1 + b * Di * t)^(1 / b)";
cumulativeEquation = "Np(t) = Np0 + qi^b / ((1 - b) * Di) * (qi^(1 - b) - q(t)^(1 - b))";
break;
}
QStringList lines;
lines << rateEquation;
if ( model.isAccumulated ) lines << cumulativeEquation;
// qi is derived per second for accumulated curves, scale to the time unit of t
const double qi = model.isAccumulated ? parameters.initialProductionRate * secondsPerYear : parameters.initialProductionRate;
const QString qiUnit = model.isAccumulated ? " [per year]" : "";
QString parameterText =
QString( "qi = %1%2, Di = %3 [1/year]" ).arg( qi, 0, 'g', 6 ).arg( qiUnit ).arg( parameters.initialDeclineRate * secondsPerYear, 0, 'g', 6 );
if ( model.type == DeclineCurveType::HYPERBOLIC || model.type == DeclineCurveType::AUTO_ARPS )
parameterText += QString( ", b = %1" ).arg( parameters.hyperbolicDeclineConstantB, 0, 'g', 4 );
lines << parameterText;
const QString referenceDate = QDateTime::fromSecsSinceEpoch( parameters.referenceTime ).date().toString( Qt::ISODate );
lines << QString( "t is time in years since %1" ).arg( referenceDate );
if ( model.isAccumulated ) lines << "Np0 is the accumulated value at t = 0";
return lines.join( "\n" );
}